离开威权主义后的演进路径

Pathways from Authoritarianism

本文对威权政体进行了新的分类,以此研究政体类型对非民主政体的存续或消亡的影响,以及不同的威权主义政体对民主发展的影响。本文研究结果显示,不同的威权主义政体所面对的民主发展倾向是不同的。因此,威权主义的不同本质应当成为民主的关键前提之一。有限的多党政体是迈向民主体制的主要方式。事实上,这种政体类型已经成为威权主义迈向民主未来的最常见形式:一党体制或军事体制,都有可能先转化为有限的多党政体,再进一步迈向成熟的民主政体。

This paper uses a new typology of authoritarian regimes to explore the extent to which regime type explains the survival （and breakdown） of non-democratic regimes as well as the impact of different types of authoritarian regimes on democratic development. Our results demonstrate that different types of authoritarian regime face different propensities to develop toward democracy. Hence the nature of the authoritarian regime in question deserves to be added to the list of democracy＇s essential preconditions. One regime type - the limited multiparty system - stands out as the prime stepping stone to democracy. The fact that this regime type has become the most common form of authoritarianism can be seen as a promising sign for the future.