我国东部地区几个代表测站逐日降水序列统计分布特征

STATISTICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF DAILY RAINFALL SERIES AT FIVE REPRESENTATIVE STATIONS IN EASTERN CHINA

本文根据Markov链理论分析了逐日降水序列的干湿统计特征及其概率模型,对我国东部地区沈阳、北京、荆州、上海、广州等5个代表性测站分别建立逐日降水序列的干湿日游程、干湿周期(天气循环)的概率分布模式。文中计算了各站干湿日游程的平均长度和方差、干湿周期的平均长度和方差、干湿日演变的极限分布概率等统计参数,所得结果较好地反映了我国季风气候所特有的干湿特征。上述理论计算结果不但可为农业生产和水资源开发、利用部门提供气候依据,也为逐日天气预报提供必要的气候背景。

Dry-wet spells and weather cycle probability models are presented for the daily rainfall series at five representative stations in eastern China based on Markov chain theory. Some valuable statistical parameters, such as the mean length and variance of the dry-wet spell, the mean length and variance of the dry-wet cycle and the limit distribution probability of the dry-wet day evolution, are calculated. The results reflect the characteristics of the monsoon climate in eastern China and provide the climatic basis not only for agricultural production and water resource utilization but also for daily weather forecasting.