浙江省产业结构与经济增长动态分析

Dynamic Analysis on Industrial Structure and Economic Growth in Zhejiang

本文利用浙江省1978-2008年的第一、二、三产业和国内生产总值的数据,运用VAR模型侧重考察了浙江省三大产业结构调整对经济增长的动态影响。在VAR模型的脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析的基础上发现,第三产业变动在长期上对国民经济的动态冲击和贡献度最大,第二产业变动在短期内对国民经济的动态冲击和贡献度最大;从效率角度看,无论是长期还是短期,第一产业对经济增长没有明显贡献。

Together with the data （1978 -2008） concerning the primary, the secondary, the tertiary industries and GDP of Zhejiang, the paper uses VAR model to examine the effeet that the adjustments of the three industries bring to economic growth. Through the analysis of impulse response function and variance decomposition, the major findings are： the adjustment of the service industry has not only the greatest impact on, but also makes the most contributions to economic growth in the long term; while in the short term, alteration of the secondary industry takes the lead to influence the development of national economy. In terms of efficiency, the primary industry seldom makes any distinct eontribution to economic growth regardless of time.