经济危机和信贷扩张背景下的通货膨胀风险测度研究

Measuring Inflation Risk Under World Economic Crisis and Credit Expansion

基于货币长期中性的假设,建立通货膨胀风险测度模型,并将全球经济危机和中国信贷扩张作为冲击因素引入模型,研究发现在经济危机造成的破坏不再恶化的情况下,中国将可能从2010年下半年开始出现明显的通货膨胀压力;如果经济危机造成的破坏超出预期,则从2010年开始,CPI指数将重新回到大于零的区间,但考虑到货币供应量冲击对通货膨胀的影响具有相当的滞后性,因此中国2009年信贷扩张的效应可能在2～3年后才会完全显现出来。

The paper proposes a model to measure the Chinese inflation risk under assumption of long-term monetary neutrality. The result shows that the Chinese inflation risk will keep rising till 2010 if economic crisis were an moderate recession, and if economic crisis were an unexpeeted crisis, the price level would go back to positive area in 2010. Moreover, the effects of recent credit expansion on inflation may completely emerge in 2 - 3 years.