春季融雪期0℃层高度与乌鲁木齐河径流量的关系

Relationship between the 0℃Layer Height and the Streamflow of the Urumqi River in the Period of Spring Snowmelt

在收集乌鲁木齐河春季日平均流量和0℃层高度资料的基础上,应用统计方法分析了春季融雪期0℃层高度变化与乌鲁木齐河日平均流量的关系,得出乌鲁木齐河日平均流量与乌鲁木齐08:00时和20:00时的0℃层高度有较好的线性关系,但日流量的变化趋势滞后于0℃层高度变化;2003-2006年日平均流量序列与0℃层高度序列的相关系数均超过95%显著水平,仅2002年未达到显著水平。最后选出相关系数最高的序列进行回归分析,建立回归模型的系数,希望能为今后的融雪径流与融雪型洪水的预报提供参考。

Change of the 0 ℃ layer height may reflect the circumfluence change of cold air mass and warm air mass in the high altitude. So the 0 ℃ layer height is an effective index, which can be used to reflect air temperature change ahead of schedule in the work of weather forecast. Generally, the change of 0℃ layer height is always ahead of the change of the near ground air temperature. Therefore, we think the 0℃ layer height is more effective than near ground air temperature in the forecast of the springtime flood. On the basis of collected data of the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River and 0℃ layer height in spring season, in this paper the relationship between 0℃ layer height changes and the average daily streamflow of Urumqi River in spring snowmeh period was analyzed using statistical methods. Standardization of the original data was conducted before the statistical analysis. It is found that there were better linear relationship between the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River and the 0℃layer height at 08 am and 20 pm. The change of the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River was lagging behind the change of the 0 ℃ layer height. The correlation coefficients between the time series of the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River and the 0 ℃ layer height for the years from 2003 to 2006 were significant with a confidence level of 95%, except for the year of 2002. Finally, the best regression models were gained by using the time series of the 0℃ layer height and the average daily streamflow of the Urumqi River which were obviously correlated. The regression models can be used to forecast the snowmeh run off and snowmelt flood of the Urumqi .River.