公路地基沉降预测及其计算方法研究

Research on Forecast of Highway Subgrade Settlement and Calculate Methods

为弥补公路路基沉降预测中各现有模型存在的不足,提出一种新的沉降预测模型,并给出了利用该模型进行沉降预测的解析方法和数值方法。分析了该模型的特点,说明了测量误差以及测点数对预测结果的影响。通过与其他预测方法的比较,该模型有明显的优势。结合工程实例验证了该模型的合理性,并指出解析方法在求解过程中会影响实测数据的权重,进而影响预测效果;而数值方法求解简单,方便实用,对测点数的多少要求不高,不影响实测数据的权重,预测精度较高。

Aimed at the defects of the existing models of forecasting highway settlement, a new model was presented and the analytical and numerical methods of forecasting highway settlement were given. The characteristics of the new model were shown. The influences of measuring error and number of measuring points were analyzed. The results from different methods show that the new model has an obvious superiority. The case study shows the rationality of the model. The weights of measured data would be changed when solving the parameters of the new model by analytical method, so the forecasting results would be inexact. However, the weights of measured data would not be changed by numerical method, and the forecasting results have high precision.