近50年石羊河出山口径流对气候变化的响应

The response of runoff of Shiyang River basin in Mountainfoot to climate change

以石羊河支流杂木河为代表,采用Spearman秩次相关检验法、Mann-Kendall秩次相关检验法,对杂木河出山口近50年(1956-2007)的径流以及石羊河流域乌鞘岭、永昌、武威、古浪、民勤5个气象站近50年的气候要素进行了分析,建立了径流和气候因子之间的多元线性回归模型,并利用灰色关联分析法进一步计算了气候要素和径流之间的关联程度。结果表明:杂木河出山口径流呈下降趋势,与气候要素的相关性明显,受降水影响最大,蒸发的影响次之,受气温的影响较小,关联度分别为0.728,0.667,0.573。

In this study, we take Zamu River as a sample, which is a branch of the Shiyang River. We collect observation data of weather station and hydrological station in Shiyang River. The Mann Kendall and Spearman method was applied to analyze the tendency characteristics of runoff and climatic elements in the resent 50 years in the Shiyang River Basin. Models of response of the runoff to climate change were set up. The climatic factors affecting on runoff was analyzed by the method of the grey correlation analysis. The results showed that precipitation is the largest influencing factor, evaporation and temperature is the less influencing factor. Their correlation coefficient respectively is 0.728,0. 667 and 0. 573.