现阶段农地流转市场能减轻土地细碎化程度吗?——来自江苏兴化和黑龙江宾县的初步证据

Can Land Transfer Markets Reduce Land Fragmentation Currently? Evidence from Xinghua City of Jiangsu Province and Bin County of Heilongjiang Province

土地细碎化导致效率损失,完善土地流转市场可以减少乃至消除土地细碎化已经成为许多人共识。本文利用江苏兴化、黑龙江宾县两地8个村庄农民的实际田块分布图,根据整群抽样调查所获得的数据,模拟了农民间农地交换以减轻农地细碎化的可能性。模拟结果显示,由于地块不匹配、交换链条过长等原因,农民间农地交换很难成功。现阶段只有农户数量大幅度减少并实现永久性的向城市移民才能增加农民手中地块数以及土地面积,从而增加土地匹配和相邻概率,扩大土地的可分割性,提高土地的可替代性,缩短交易链条,降低农户间土地交换的交易成本,实现通过交换土地降低农地细碎化程度的目标。

It's commonly believed that land fragmentation causes efficiency loss,and the improvement of land transfer markets can reduce and even eliminate land fragmentation.Based on the real land distribution charts of 8 villages in Xinghua City of Jiangsu Province and Bin County of Heilongjiang Province,and the data from cluster sampling,this study simulates the possibility to reduce land fragmentation via land transfer among farmers.The simulation result shows that land transfer between farmers can hardly succeed because of land mismatching and overlong transfer chains.Currently only sharply decrease of rural population and permanent migration of farmers to cities can increase land numbers and quantities,and then increase land matching and adjacency possibility,increase land divisibility,enhance land substitutability,shorten trade chains,lower land trade cost between farmers,and achieve the goal of reducing land fragmentation via land transfer among farmers.