金融危机背景下农民工就业及外出务工意愿分析

Analysis on the Employment and Desire to Migrate of Rural Migrant Workers in the Background of Financial Crisis

本文基于2009年初对2036名河南省返乡农民工的调查数据,分析了金融危机对农民工就业的影响,采用logit模型对失业返乡农民工外出务工意愿的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究表明,约1/3的农民工因受金融危机影响失业返乡,在长三角及珠三角地区打工的农民工受影响最严重,机械制造、电子电器、纺织及建筑行业农民工受影响最深,大龄、男性或文化程度低的农民工受影响较重;在失业返乡农民外出务工意愿的影响因素中,年龄、是否掌握农业生产技术、家庭人口数及对生活担忧程度有显著的负向影响,家庭外出打工人数有显著的正向影响,受教育程度具有非线性的影响,性别、婚姻及是否接受职业技能培训没有显著影响。

Based on the survey of 2036 migrant workers who have returned home in Henan province in the early 2009,This paper studies the effect of financial crisis on the rural migrant workers,and analyzes determinates of migrant desire of unemployed rural migrant workers by the Logit model.The main result is that one-third of rural workers has been unemployed and returns home due to the impact of financial crisis.The employment of rural workers is more seriously affected by the financial crisis in the Yangtze River Delta or Pearl River Delta regions,and in electrical and mechanical equipment,textile and construction industries.The employment of older or male rural workers or the ones whose level of education is lower are more seriously affected too.In determinates of migrant desire of unemployed rural migrant workers:the age of migrant worker,holding the agricultural skills or not,family population and the degree of worrying about the future life have significant negative effects,the amount of migrant workers in the family has significant positive effect,the level of education has nonlinear effect,the gender and marital status of migrant worker and the vocational skills training status have no significant effect.