1949年以来中国环境与发展关系的演变

Evolutionary Stage of Relationship Between Environment and Economic Development in China Since 1949

从IPAT方程出发,发现了环境影响随着经济发展或时间的演变依次遵循三个"倒U型"曲线规律,即环境影响强度的倒U型曲线、人均环境影响的倒U型曲线和环境影响总量的倒U型曲线。根据此规律,可以将该演化过程划分为四个阶段即:环境影响强度高峰前阶段、环境影响强度高峰到人均环境影响量高峰阶段、人均环境影响量高峰到环境影响总量高峰阶段以及环境影响总量稳定下降阶段。在环境演变的不同阶段,主要驱动力存在着明显的差异。在环境影响强度高峰前阶段,资源消耗或污染物排放增长更多地由资源或污染密集型技术进步驱动;在资源消耗或污染物强度高峰到人均资源消耗或污染物排放高峰阶段,主要由经济增长驱动;而在人均资源消耗或污染物排放高峰到资源消耗或污染物排放总量高峰阶段以及总量高峰以后的发展阶段,则主要由节约高效技术或污染减排技术进步来驱动。实证分析表明,中国目前环境与发展关系基本上处于经济增长主要驱动的环境影响强度高峰向人均环境影响高峰过渡阶段,这同时意味着中国要在短期内实现人均环境影响和环境影响总量高峰的跨越是异常困难的。

Based on IPAT identity, the authors fotmd out that along with economic development or passage of time environmental impact change followed in sequence of three inverted U-shape curves in the long run, which is the inverted U-shape curve of environmental impacts per unit of GDP, of environmental impacts per capita, and of total environmental impacts respectively. According to three inverted U shape curves, the environmental change process can be. divided into four stages, which is, the stage before the peak of environmental impacts per unit of GDP, the stage between the peak of environmental impacts per trait of GDP and the peak of environmental impacts per capita, the stage between the peak of environmental impacts per capita and the peak of total environmental impacts, and the stage atter the total environmental impacts. The leading driving forces are also different in different stages of environmental change. Before the peak of environmental impacts per unit of GDP, the growth of resottrce consumption or pollutant emissions is mainly driven by those technical advances which are usually resouree- intensive or pollution-intensive, by economic growth in the stage between the peak of the strength of resource consumption or pollutants and the peak of resource consumption or pollutants per capita, and by technical advances which are resource-saving or pollution reducing in the stage between the peak of resource consmnption per capita or pollutant emissions and the peak of total resource consumption or total pollutant emissions as well as the development stoge after the peak of total consumption and emissions. The empirical analysis indicates that China is in the stage between environmental impacts per unit of GDP and enviromnental impacts per capita, where the growth of resource consumption or pollutant emissions is mainly driven by economic growth, and it is difficult for China to surpass the peak of environmental impacts per capita and total environmental impacts in the short term.