排污权交易条件下古诺市场动态系统的均衡及复杂性研究

Equilibrium and Complexity of Dynamic System of Cournot Market Based on Emission Trading

目前国内外关于排污权交易方面的研究很多,但是大多数学者在排污权交易的理论研究和实践讨论中忽略了排污权交易对产品市场结构的影响问题。实际上,在中国市场体制并不完善的条件下实施排污权交易制度,有可能导致排污权交易市场以及产品市场的扭曲,必须对此加以研究。文章建立了排污权交易条件下的古诺离散动态系统模型,分析了排污权交易条件下古诺市场动态均衡及其稳定性问题。理论研究和数值模拟的结果表明:当排污权交易价格、厂商调整产量的相对速度、边际污染治理成本以及边际生产成本等参数发生变化时,纳什均衡点失去稳定性,经倍周期分叉后出现混沌状态。厂商调整产量的相对速度越慢,厂商的利润越稳定;厂商的边际生产成本、边际污染治理成本、污染排放系数以及排污权交易价格等参数越大,厂商要承受的风险也就越大,厂商对产量的调整余地也越小,厂商的利润相对稳定。

Currently, there are many studies about emission trading worldwide. However, most scholars frequently ignored the issue of emission trading impact on product market structure in the theoretical research and practice discussion. In fact, the execution of emission trading policy in Chinese imperfect market may results in the distortion of emission trading market and production market, so more attention should be paid on this field. The authors establish dynamic discrete system Cournot model and then analyze the dynamic equilibrium and its stability of Coumot market in the condition of emission trading. Theoretical study and simulation result showed that Nash-equilibrium loses its stability and the system shows ehaotic status when parameters such as price of emission trade, marginal pollution treatment cost and marginal production cost change. Moreover, when the relative speed of enterprises adjusting production is slower, enterprise profit stays more stable; when many parameters such as enterprises＇ marginal cost of production, marginal pollution control cost, pollution emission coefficient and emission trading price are bigger, the risk that enterprises take is bigger, room for production adjustment for enterprises is smaller and enterprises＇ profit is relatively stable.