我国宏观经济形势及流通业发展环境分析

On China's Macro Economic Situation and Environment for Development of Retailing Industry

2008年下半年以来,为应对金融危机,我国采取了一系列经济刺激计划并取得明显成效,我国经济不断企稳回升。其中,投资成为经济增长最主要的拉动力量,而消费则是最稳定的一支力量。如果不发生特别大的变化,2010年我国经济增长总体态势和动力格局将好于2009年,有望保持平稳较快增长格局,有利于流通领域的发展和回升,为流通业迎来更好的发展机会。考虑到宏观政策影响因素的复杂性,2010年我国宏观政策存在许多两难的选择,宏观政策回旋余地不大,政策取向短期内不会有重大调整,将继续保持积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策,当然也要进行一些适度的调整,如逐步调整刺激经济的总量、结构和力度。在这样的宏观形势下,流通企业必须密切关注全球金融危机的变化与世界主要经济体的走势;关注外需及对外环境的变化;关注微调和局部政策调整对流通业的影响;关注居民收入和社会保障体系的进展;关注消费政策取向的变化;关注消费者价格指数(CPI)趋势和动向的发展变化。要充分发挥销售终端对整个产业结构调整的促进和导向作用;充分发挥品牌的展示作用,推动品牌创新,特别是要为国内品牌提供更多展示和实现的机会,进一步提升和谋求金融模式创新;采用新的营销手段和信息技术,促进流通业发展。

In the second half of 2008, to cope with the financial crisis, China has made great achievement in stimulating the economic growth. And China＇s economy has begun to rise. Among this, the investment has become the main force for the economic growth, and consumption is the most stable one. If there are not special changes, in the next year, the general trend and force distribution will be better than this year. We can expect the maintainance a stable economic growth that will be benefit for the development and rise in the area of circulation and provide the circulation industry with a better opportunity for its development. Considering the complexity of the determinants of the macro policy in the next year, we will face so many dilemmas in macro policy choice. There will not he big adjustment in policy orientation in the short run and we will continually implement a proactive fiscal policy and a moderately easy monetary policy. Certainly, there will be some adjustment that will arouse the attention from circulation enterprises. The circulation enterprises should pay close attention to changes in global financial crisis and the trend of some main economic bodies in the world, to changes of foreign demand and the environment, to the impact of micro adjustment and partial policy adjustment on the circulation industry, to the improvement of individual income and social security system, to the changes in consumption policy orientation, and to the trend of CPI. We should give full play to the role of sales end in promoting and guiding the restructure in the whole industry, give full play to the role of brand in demonstration and promote brand innovation, promote innovation in financial mode, adopt new means of marketing and IT and promote the development of circulation industry.