西北温凉半湿润区气候变化对马铃薯生长发育的影响——以甘肃岷县为例

Impacts of climatic change on potato growth in the semi-humid region over extra-tropical and cool Northwest of China:a case study in Minxian County of Gansu Province

利用西北温凉半湿润区马铃薯生长发育定位观测资料、加密观测和对应平行气象观测资料,分析气候变化对马铃薯生长发育的影响,以及马铃薯块茎生长与气象条件的关系。结果表明,研究区域降水量年际变化呈下降趋势,降水量变化曲线线性拟合倾向率为-8.329 mm/10 a。降水量存在3 a的年际周期变化。气温年际变化呈上升趋势,气温变化曲线线性拟合倾向率为0.144℃/10 a。作物生长季干燥指数呈显著上升趋势,干燥指数变化曲线线性拟合倾向率为0.042/10 a,20世纪90年代初至2007年明显趋于干旱化。马铃薯播种到采收约需150-168d,需≥0℃积温2000-2300℃,降水量400-500mm,日照时数900-1100h。马铃薯在播种后105d开始,块茎由缓慢生长转为迅速生长阶段;在播种后127d,块茎生长速度最大;播种后149d开始,块茎生长从迅速生长又转为缓慢生长。对马铃薯生长发育全生育期而言,受气候变暖的影响,马铃薯花序形成期每10 a提前8-9d,开花期每10 a提前4-5d。气温对马铃薯产量形成除采收期外,其余为负效应,块茎膨大期对气温变化十分敏感;而降水量的影响函数同热量的影响函数呈反相位分布,除出苗期和采收期降水量为负效应外,其余时段降水量对马铃薯产量形成均为正效应,马铃薯分枝期到开花期对降水量变化十分敏感。

Using potato growth and meteorological condition observational data in the cool and semi-humid region over northwest China to analyze the effects on potato growth of climatic change and the relationship between potato growth and meteorological condition.The results show that precipitation displays a descending trend,and it changes in a velocity of-8.329mm/10a change and an annual period change of 3a.It is proved that the temperature displays a marked ascending trend and changes in a velocity of 0.144℃/10a.It is also proved that the aridity index displays an ascending trend during the crop growth period,it changes in a velocity of 0.042/10a,and the tendency is significant from the beginning of 1990 to 2007 year.It is showed that potato needs 150-168d,about 2000-2300℃ accumulated temperature above 0℃,about 400-500mm precipitation and about 900-1100h sunshine duration from sowing to reaping.It is also showed that potato tuber growing velocity turns to higher at the 105d after sowing and becomes lower at the 149d after sowing.The time of the highest velocity is the 127d after sowing.The inflorescence forming period is ahead for（8-9）d/10a and the florescence period is ahead for（4-5）d/10a because of the warming climate.Except for that in the reaping period,the temperature is negative to the yield,and it is sensitive to the temperature during the tuber expansion period.The influences of precipitation and temperature are distributed in an in-phase opposition.Except for that in the seedling and reap periods,precipitation is positive to the yield,and it is sensitive to precipitation from the bifurcation period to the florescence period.