汾渭地震带地震趋势数学建模分析

Mathmatical Modeling of Seismic Tendency for the Fenwei Seismic Zone

按照中国大陆及邻近地区活动地块和地震带的划分方案,使用Mapsis软件选取了汾渭地震带1000年以来MS4.7以上地震,这样的地震资料应具有地质单元的统一性。使用数学中19阶多项式模型,对地震资料进行最佳逼近拟合,并递推未来1—2年时间尺度预测。模型中的参数用最小二乘法求取。引用一种数学方法来描述汾渭地震带的地震趋势规律。

According to the structure division result of active block and seismic zone, we select the Ms ≥4.7 earthquakes the Fenwei seismic zone using MAPSIS software. This data may have the characteristic of one geology unit. Using the 19-order non-linear mathmat- ical polynomial whose correlation coefficients can be obtained by the method of least squares, we made optimum approaches to data by fitting, and made a prediction of seismic tendency in 1 to 2 years＇ time. This provides a mathematical model prediction method to describe the rule of seismic tendency in the Fenwei seismic zone.