长三角、珠三角与海西区经济增长动态关系研究

A Study on Dynamic Relationship of Economic Growth among the Yangtze River Delta, Pear River Delta and West Coast of Straits

根据1978年至2005年的时间序列,运用协整检验与脉冲响应函数方法,计量分析了长江三角洲、珠江三角洲与海峡西岸经济区经济增长之间的动态关系。结果表明:长三角、珠三角与海西区经济增长之间有协整关系,呈现一定的长期均衡性;长三角与珠三角经济具有内在稳定性,而海西区经济稳定增长能力相对较弱;长三角经济对海西区的极化效应大于溢出效应,辐射带动作用微弱,而珠三角经济促进了福建省经济增长,溢出效应明显;两大三角洲经济跨过海西区直接发生相互促进作用,福建省经济出现"边缘化"趋势。

Based on the 1978-2005 time series, this paper analyzes the dynamic relationship of economic growth among the Yangtze River Delta （YRD）, West Coast of the Straits （WCS） and Pear River Delta （PRD） by economics means of Co-integration tests and Impulse Response Function （IRF）. The results show there is a co-integration relationship among the YRD, WCS and PRD, which is long stable. The inherent laws of the YRD and PRD economics are stable, but that of the WCS is very weak. The economic polarization effect of the YRD to the WCS is greater than the spillover effect and radiation effect of the YRD is weak, but the PRD economics promotes the WCS economic growth, and the spillover effect is obvious. The YRD and PRD economics directly enhance each other cross the WCS, Fujian economics is marginalized.