基于灰色BP网络的城市建设用地预测模型

Prediction model of urban construction land use based on grey BP network

城市建设用地的准确预测是城市合理规划,持续发展的重要保证,建立一种灰色BP网络预测模型,把灰色预测与BP神经网络组合起来,通过历史数据预测城市建设用地量,该模型既考虑了城市建设用地的时序特性,又考虑了它的非线性特性。通过具体的实例研究,对比了单独灰色预测模型与组合预测模型的预测结果,结果显示组合预测的结果与实际有较高的拟合度。

To make an accurate prediction for urban construction land use is an important guarantee for city reasonable planning,and sustainable development.The paper establishes a grey BP network prediction model,combines the grey forecast and BP neural network together,predicts urban construction land use through historical data.The model considers the timing features of urban construction land use,also considers its non-linear features.Through a specific case study,the resuhs between separated grey forecast and combination forecast are compared.The results show that the combination forecast has a higher fitting degree.