2007年一次江淮暴雨的诊断分析及数值模拟研究

Study on the Diagnostic Analysis and Numerical Simulation of a Heavy Rainfall over the Yangtze River in 2007

用Ncep实况资料对2007年7月7—9日的天气形势和实测的6h降水进行诊断分析，用WRF模式对发生在2007年7月8—9日的一次江淮降水进行数值模拟，并利用此次模拟的3h次的输出结果从动力学和热力学方面对此次暴雨作诊断分析。结果表明：造成8日江淮大暴雨的直接的影响系统是850hPa的切变线及切变线上的低涡；强降雨中心出现的位置跟低层辐合高层辐散出现的位置和最大垂直速度上升区有很好的一致性；锋面南方存在深厚的位势不稳定区域，一旦有抬升运动产生，便很容易激发出强烈的对流运动．从而产生强降水。

Diagnostic analysis of the weather situation from 7th to 9th ,July,2007 and the observed precipitation every 6 h using the data provided by Neep recording data, and then by the use of model WRF, a heavy rainfall numerical simulation in Yangtze River which occurred on 8 - 9 Jul 2007, diagnostic analysis had been made from the aspects of dynamics and thermodynamics using the simulation result every 3 h output. The results showed that the influencing system which resuhing in storm rainfall was the shear line at 850 hPa and vortex on it; There was a good consistency between the location of the center of heavy rainfall and lower-level convergence, upper-level divergence and vertical ascent motion. A deep area of potential instability existing on the south of front, intense convective motion and heavy rainfall will be aroused in the case of uplift.