摘要
以"单重心方法"计算了广义模糊数的重心点,提出了一种新的基于广义模糊数相似测度的模糊风险分析方法,并考虑了决策者意见的可信度和各种不确定的风险影响因素。以管道失效概率为例给出了该方法的操作步骤,计算结果表明,该方法能够正确处理模糊风险分析问题,可为管道的安全管理工作提供参考依据。
Center of gravity (COG) of generalized fuzzy numbers is calculated with simple center of gravity method (SCGM) and a new fuzzy risk analysis method based on similarity measures of generalized fuzzy numbers is proposed, which considers the confidence level of ideas from decision makers and uncertain risk influence factors. Taking failure probability of pipeline as an example, evaluation steps to apply the method are provided. Calculation results show that the method can exactly deal with fuzzy risk analysis issues and can provide a reference foundation to safety management of pipelines.
出处
《油气储运》
CAS
北大核心
2009年第12期31-34,共4页
Oil & Gas Storage and Transportation
关键词
管道
风险分析
单重心方法
广义模糊数
模糊风险分析
pipeline, risk analysis, simple center of gravity method (SCGM), generalized fuzzy number, fuzzy risk assessment
