北京非职业性一氧化碳中毒气象条件分析

Meteorological Conditions Analysis of Non-Occupational Carbon Monoxide Poisoning in Beijing

为了探讨北京市观象台地面气象要素与北京城八区非职业性一氧化碳(CO)中毒人次的相关性,收集了北京16个急救中心日CO中毒人次与同期日平均气温、日最高气温、日最低气温、日平均海平面气压等气象要素的时间序列,利用线性回归分析分别统计CO中毒人次与各气象要素的月平均气候及9天滑动平均的相关关系。CO中毒人数主要集中在冬半年(10月至次年4月),1月平均CO中毒人数最高,每千万人口为8.1人;北京月平均CO中毒人数与月平均海平面气压成正相关、与月平均极端最低气温呈反相关;过去9天的平均极端最低气温与未来9天CO中毒人数的相关系数达-0.7661,统计学意义明显(P<0.01)。气象部门在冬季通过预测天气变化来提醒使用燃气、煤炭等取暖的居民预防CO中毒,做好公共事件气象服务工作。

According to the 3-year daily statistical data about non-occupational CO poisoned patients from 16 first aid centers over the eight districts in the central Beijing, the relationship between the number of CO poisoned patients and ground meteorological elements is analyzed. The results show that the number of CO poisoned patients was greater in the winter half year （from October to April）. The mean occurrence rate of CO poisoning in January was 8.1 per 107 , being the largest in a whole year. The mean of monthly CO poisoned patients had positive correlation with monthly sea level pressure and negative correlation with monthly extreme low temperature. The correlation coefficient between the mean of extreme low temperature of the past 9 days and the number of CO poisoned patients of the future 9 days is -0.7661. It is important for meteorological service to provide CO poisoning warning based on weather forecast.