地震预测研究的规则

The“Game Rules”of Earthquake Prediction

几十年来地震预测研究的主要贡献与其说是发现了一批可能是有希望的地震前兆,不如说是对这些地震前兆进行了批判性的科学检验;而近年来地震预测研究最突出的进展,与其说是尝试对一些类型的地震进行某种程度的预测,不如说是从科学上明确了地震预测研究的一系列规则。这些规则将有助于地震预测研究的健康发展,并最大限度地减少地震预测研究的社会代价。

The game rules of earthquake prediction,which mainly deal with the question how a proposed earthquake precursor can be regarded as acceptable,play an essential role in the study of earthquake prediction.The necessity and contents of the game rules are reviewed.It is helpful for public to avoid the negative secietal implications of earthquake prediction by understanding these game rules.