政府农业科技投入与农业经济增长的动态关联分析

STUDY ON DYNAMIC RELATION MECHANISM OF THE GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT IN AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY AND THE AGRICULTURAL ECONOMIC GROWTH

运用动态计量经济模型中的分布滞后模型、ADF检验、协整检验和Granger因果检验对政府农业科技投入与农业经济增长建立了联系,结果表明,政府农业科技投入促进了农业经济增长。政府农业科技投入每增加1%,农业经济增长在当年及其滞后3年期内累计增加0.668%,但两者之间并没有形成长期稳定的动态关联机制,没有形成互为双向Granger因果原因。研究结果为我国政府指定农业政策提供了有力依据。

Employing methods of PDL, ADF unit root test, cointegration analysis and Granger Causality test of dynamic econometrics, the dynamic relationship between the government investment in agricultural science ＆ technology and the agricultural economic growth is analyzed. The results show the agricultural economic growth in current or subsequent three years improve 0. 66818% with the 1% increasing of the government investment in agricultural science ＆ technology, but this impetus can not form the long-time and stable influence on agricultural economic growth. The analysis of Granger causes shows the government investment is justly single-direction reason for the agriculture economic growth. Therefore the research results supply the powerful support for the formulation of government agricuhure policy.