内蒙古东南部地区夏季旱涝的环流特征分析及预测

The Analysis on Circumfluence Characteristic and Forecasting of Drought and Waterlogging in Summer in Southeast of Inner Mongolia

主要从与内蒙古东南部地区(指赤峰市和通辽市)夏季旱涝关系密切的西太平洋副高、亚洲地区环流和蒙古冷涡三个主要的天气系统入手,分析旱涝年的环流差异。结果表明:⑴夏季蒙古冷涡偏多、副热带高压偏强和北半球盛行经向环流,是造成夏季降水偏多的主要环流形势;⑵冬季北半球极涡纬度和亚洲地区的环流指数对夏季环流形势有一定的指示意义;二者相互动态地影响了夏季旱涝,据此建立夏季旱涝预测模型。经过1995—2008年14年的实际应用,趋势准确率为85.7%。

Using the West Pacific Ocean sub-tropical high,the Asian area circulation and the Mongolia cold vortex,the three aspects which have closer relation to the summer drought and flood of the southeast region（Chifeng and Tongliao） in Inner Mongolia,to analyse the circumfluent difference between the drought and flood years was analyzed.The results showed that the more Mongolia cold vortex,the stronger sub-tropical high and prevailinger radial direction circulation in Northern Hemisphere are the main mainly circumfluence characteristics which caused the summer more preciptaition to be more.The polar vortex latitude in Northern Hemisphere in winter and the circumfluence index in Asia area have designation meaningindicative significance on the summer circulation pattern.They have a dynamic effect on summer drought and waterlogging,and so established drought and waterlogging forecasting model on summer.By 14 years＇ test from 1995 to 2008,the veracity of tendency is 85.7%.