基于熵权法的科学技术评价模型及其实证研究

The Science and Technology Evaluation Model Based on Entropy Weight and Empirical Research During the 10th Five-Year of China

以"坚持以人为本,全面、协调、可持续"的科学发展观内涵为指导思想,通过科技指标的海选、筛选和理性分析构建了科技综合评价指标体系。用熵权法客观地对评价指标进行赋权,建立了基于熵权法的中国"十五"期间的科学技术发展状况评价模型,并给出了"十一五"期间科技发展政策建议。研究特色有五:①根据国际关注、又好又快、可持续发展和以人为本的原则建立指标体系,使科学技术的评价反映科学发展观的要求;②通过熵权法客观地确定指标权重,避免了人为主观确定权重的随意性;③利用熵权法确定的熵值,确保了仅用24个指标反映了95.5%以上的原始信息;④通过对影响科学技术整体效果的准则层进行评价,有助于找出科技发展各环节存在的问题;⑤通过对中国"十五"期间科技发展中的主要问题的分析,给出了"十一五"期间中国科技发展的政策建议。

According to the meaning of Scientific Development Concept： insisting on human-oriented, comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable development, this paper constructs the comprehensive evaluation index system through the selection, screening and rational analysis of science and technology indicators. By using the Entropy Weight to give the weight to each indicator, this paper sets up Comprehensive Evaluation to appraise the development status of the Period of the Tenth Five- Year Plan of China. At the same time, this paper gives the policy suggestions to the Eleventh Five-Year Plan of China. The characteristics of this paper lie in： i） it sets up the science and technology ap- praising indicator system based on the principles of international attention, being good as well as fast,sustainable development and being human-oriented, which reflect the Scientific Development Concept. ii） it uses the Entropy Weight to give the weights to avoid the subjectiveness in weight deciding; iii） by using the Entropy Weight to decide the Entropy, it insures the concepts contain over 95.5% original information; iv） it helps to find out the problems of Science and Technology development by analyzing the factors which influence the guide line layers; v） it analyzes the problems of Science and Technology development in the period of the Tenth Five-Year Plan of China, and gives out the policy suggestions to the period of the eleventh one.