我国东南低山丘陵区土地粮食生产潜力研究──以桂林市为例

A STUDY ON LAND POTENTIAL OF FOOD PRODUCTION IN LOW MOUNTAINS AND HILLS OF SOUTHEAST CHINA─A case study in Guilin city

我国东南低山丘陵区资源丰富，历来为重要的粮食生产基地．但其粮食生产近年发展缓慢．根据采用趋势潜力与资源潜力相结合的方法，所进行的桂林市土地粮食生产潜力及其发挥和实现影响因素的研究结果，该区粮食生产潜力较大，但目前发挥和实现程度低．为促进粮食生产潜力的发挥．并保证其持续发展．今后应大力改造中产田．提高土地质量和耕地灌溉保证率．加强粮食生产的物化投入，保证活劳动投入的需要，并同时注意协调化肥的投入结构．

The low mountains and hills in southeast China. with abundant resources. are an important baseof food production in our country. But its food production developed slowly in recent years. In order to promote the food production and a sustainable development in this area. the land food production potential and itsrealization influence factors. taken Guilin city as a case study. were studied in this paper. by trend potentialanalysis with GM (1.1) model and resources potential calculation mainly with AEZ method.According to the study results. the following conclusions were reached: (1)In low mountains and hills ofsoutheast china, the food production development is restricted by a lot of factors. but its potential is largewith the input quantity greatly increased. (2)In this area. the realization level of land food production potential is low today. In order to give full play to food production potential, promote its sustainable developmentand coordinate the relationship of man-land and man-food, it is critical to transform middle-low yieldland; improve land quality. irrigation system as well as Input; ensure labour input requirement and regulatechemical fertilizer input. especially enforce the input of N and K fertilizer. (3 )The research by the methodwhich combines trend potential with resources potential can more entirely discover the potential for land foodproduction developement, as well as the influence of nature. socio-economic and input factors on the potential realization. Moreover, it can better service the decision for the sustainable development of regional landfoed production.