摘要
This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi＇s climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO＇s well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China＇s rice production is less climate-sensitive.
This paper aims to demonstrate the relationships between ENSO and rice production of Jiangxi province in order to identify the reason that ENSO might have little effect on Chinese rice production. Using a data set with measures of Jiangxi＇s climate and rice production, we find the reason that during 1985 and 2004 ENSO＇s well correlated with rainfall did not promote Chinese rice production. First, the largest effects of ENSO mostly occur in the months when there is no rice in the field. Second, there is almost no temperature effect. Finally, the monthly distribution of rainfall is almost the same in ENSO and neutral years because the largest effects are during months when there is the least rain. In addition, due to the high irrigation share and reliable and effective irrigation facilities of cultivated land, China＇s rice production is less climate-sensitive.
基金
US National Natural Science Foundation, No.0624359
Knowledge Innovation Program of the CAS, No.KSCX1-YW-09
No.KZCX2-YW-305-2
National Key Technology R＆D Program of China, No.2006BAC08B06
No.2008BAK50B06
No.2008BAK47B02
No.2008BAC44B04
China State Major Project for Water Pollution Control and Management, No.2009ZX07106-001 Acknowledgement We are grateful to FANG Yu and YAN Bangyou from the Mountain, River and Lake Office of Jiangxi and WANG Xiaohong, Deputy Director General of the Department of Science and Technology of Jiangxi Provincial Government for their assistance on this project.
