人民币汇率波动对我国与东亚地区双边贸易影响的实证研究

An Empirical Research of The RMB Exchange Rate Volatility on Bilateral Trade between China and East Asia

国际金融危机过程中,东亚部分国家和地区货币竞相贬值以促进出口的做法使得国内要求人民币贬值的呼声甚高。实证结果表明,中国与东亚地区收入水平差距、市场经济化程度以及商品价格水平拉大将导致双边贸易收支的扩大,而人民币相对汇率的升值将缩小中国与东亚地区的双边贸易收支。与此同时,人民币汇率波动对中国与东亚地区贸易收支的影响还存在着国别(地区)效应。对于中国而言,在努力扩大出口的同时应兼顾国家发展战略,坚持产业升级、慎用货币贬值措施,并应通过多次、小幅升值的方式保持人民币的强势地位。

Because the currency depreciation behavior in order to increase exportation of some countries and regions in the East Asia in the International Financial Crisis, some domestic enterprises call for depreciation of RMB. The empirical research finds that the difference of income level and market economization and commodity price level between China and East Asia will enlarge their trade balance, but the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate will reduce their trade balance. At the same time, the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate has disparity effect on different countries （regions）. We should give attention to the National Development Stratagem when we try to increase exportation, preserve in industry upgrade and be carefulness when we use measures of currency depreciation. And we should maintain the strong status of RMB through small appreciation time after time.