全球经济失衡与美元的国际地位

Global Imbalance and Dollar's International Status

全球经济失衡主要表现为美国长期的、高额的经常项目逆差和中国等亚洲国家的持续经常项目顺差。一些经济学家担心美国持续的经常项目逆差会导致美元的国际地位下降,并将最终导致世界经济增长率的下降。本文通过分析5种储备货币的面板数据得出结论:美国的经常项目逆差的确会导致美元的国际地位下降,但是这种影响却很微弱;对美元国际地位影响最大的因素是衡量网络外部性的变量,这意味着人们的习惯是决定美元国际地位的最主要因素。鉴于以上分析,我们认为美国当前的经常项目逆差还不足以对美元的国际地位产生大的影响。

The stylized facts of global imbalance is that US has run a persistent and high current account deficit, but some Asian countries like China has run a persistent current account surpluses. Some economists worry about the U.S. continuing current account deficit will lead to a decline in dollar＇s international status and world economic growth eventually. By analyzing the panel data of five reserve currencies, we find. the U.S. current account deficit will indeed lead to a decline in dollar＇s international status, but the impact is weak, The most influential factor is network externalities, which means that people＇s habit is the most important factor to determine the dollar＇s international status. Based on the above analysis, we believe that the U. S. current account deficit will not have much impact on dollar＇s international status.