非农就业与持久收入假说:理论和实证

The Hypothesis about Non-agricultural Employment and Permanent Income:A Theory and its Evidence

本文将农户的非农就业决策引入Friedman的持久收入假说模型,讨论了持久收入假说适合于中国农村实际情况的推广。理论研究表明,如果农户不受流动性约束,农户当期消费由持久收入决定,同临时收入不相关,农户农业和非农劳动投入由农业生产率和非农劳动单位报酬决定,同临时收入不相关;当农户受到流动性约束且临时收入变化不太大时,农户当期消费仍然由持久收入决定,同临时收入不相关,农户农业劳动投入仍然由农业生产率和非农劳动单位报酬决定,同临时收入也不相关,但非农劳动投入依据流动性约束程度而调整,以达到平滑消费的目的,此发现是对持久收入假说在发展中国家应用的有益补充。进一步,本文运用山东省农户调查数据实证分析了中国农户消费行为,发现实证结果同本文理论结果基本吻合。

In this paper,we have adopted Friedman's Permanent Income Hypothesis to study non-agricultural employment,and discussed whether this hypothesis can be applied to China's villages.The results of our study indicate that,if farmers are not restrained by liquidity,their current consumption is determined by their permanent income solely,independently of their transitory income,that their on-farm and off-farm labor supplies are determined by the agricultural productivity and by the wages they get from non-agricultural labor,independently of their transitory income,that,when they are controlled by liquidity and when their transitory income does not change much,their current consumption is still determined by their permanent income,independently of their transitory income,that their agricultural labor supplies are still determined by the agricultural productivity and by the wages they get from non-agricultural labor,still independently of their transitory income,and that,however,the input of non-agricultural labor is adjusted according to the degree of the restraint placed by liquidity,to offset the liquidity constraint.Our findings are a helpful supplement to the application of the permanent income hypothesis in developing countries.In addition,we have,in this article,employed the data obtained from the investigation of farmers in Shandong Province to analyze the consumption behavior of China's peasants and found that the results are fundamentally consistent with the theoretic conclusions made in this paper.