全球经济失衡加剧的政策成因——基于中美内外部经济失衡的视角

Policy Reasons for Aggravation of Global Imbalances——From the Perspective on U.S. and China's Interior and Exterior Imbalances

本文以中美两国内外部经济失衡为视角,从政策层面解释了2001～2007年全球经济失衡为何呈扩大趋势,提出了全球经济失衡加剧的"政策引致假说"。从中美两国角度来分析,全球经济失衡即表现为中美两国的外部经济失衡。结构向量自回归模型(SVAR)分析表明,中国的引进外资政策致使经常账户盈余过多,这种外部经济失衡进一步引起了内部经济失衡。国民收入决定模型(AENI)分析认为,美国为应对其内部经济失衡,采取的减税政策使其外部失衡加剧。为应对全球经济失衡,中国应调整其引进外资的政策,进行出口部门的产业结构升级;美国应适时调整其税收政策,减少财政赤字,削减贸易壁垒,等等。

In this paper the author analyze the policy reasons for this round of global imbalance and bring forward a hypothesis. From China and U.S. interior and exterior economic perspective,global imbalances are the exterior imbalances of the two countries. China＇s FDI attracting policy leads to its current account surplus,which leads to its interior imbalances. U.S.＇s tax policy leads to its current account deficits,although at the beginning the policy is meaning to solve its interior imbalances. In order to adjust global imbalances China should adjust its FDI attracting policy,and strive to upgrade the industrial structure of the export sector,the U.S. should adjust its tax policy,reduce its budget deficit,and promote the free trade.