我国轿车需求的影响因素、趋势及区域变化——基于居民家用轿车保有量的实证分析

Influential Factors,Trend and Distributional Change of Cars' Demand——Empirical Analysis Based on the Household Private Cars Ownership

在代表性家庭的假设下考察了我国居民的购车决策,根据收入分布特征估计了家用轿车总保有量,讨论了各因素对我国家用轿车保有量快速增长的影响。结果表明,收入水平增加和汽车价格下降是最主要的影响因素,收入差距扩大和人口规模增加也有一定贡献。此外,保有量的收入水平弹性分析表明,我国家用轿车需求仍将保持快速增长趋势,其中二线省市已成为增长最具活力的区域,但一线省市仍是需求增长的主要拉动力量。价格弹性分析表明,2009年购置税下调对刺激家用轿车购买效果显著。

This paper analyzses the household＇s vehicle purchases behavior with the hypothesis of representative household, estimates the aggregate ownership of Chinese private cars based on the income distribution,and discusses the separate contribution of the influential factors for the increase of the ownership of Chinese private cars. The result shows the increase of income and the decrease of vehicle price are the main influential factors,and the expansion of income gap and the increase of the population also contribute to it. Furthermore,the income elasticity of private cars ownership shows that the trend of substantial increase of Chinese private cars demand is not changed,and the demand of cites in tier two has become most active,however the demand of cities in tier one are still the main drive force of the development of private cars ownership. The price elasticity shows the decrease of vehicle purchases tax has the significant effect on the purchases of private cars.