基于中国省级面板数据的房价与地价关系研究

Study on the Relationship between the Housing Price and Land Price Based on Chinese Provincial Panel Data

本文利用2002年3月到2008年6月中国28个省的面板数据对房价与地价的关系进行了考察,结果表明土地招拍挂制度使得全国房价平均水平提高了13.2%。同时,采用面板误差修正模型对房价与地价之间的因果关系进行了检验,证实了在全国范围内,无论是长期还是短期,房价都是地价的granger原因,而地价只是房价长期granger原因。本文认为,由于各个地区地价对房价的影响方式不同,控制不同地区的房价应该采取不同的有针对性的措施,不宜实行"一刀切"政策。

In this paper, the relationship between housing prices and land prices are re-tested on panel data of 28 provinces from March 2002 to June 2008. Empirical analysis results show that： bid Invitation, auction and listing system in land cause certain raise of overall level housing price up to 13.2 percent. At the same time, through panel error correct model testing grander causality on housing price and land price confirmed that across the country, whether it is a long-term or short-term, the demand pull of housing price on land price is obvious, while the effect of land price on housing price is mainly reflected in the long term. This article holds that, because of different ways of the impact of land price on housing price in different regions, different regions should be targeted to take different measures to restrain the housing price.