甲型H1N1流感传染人数的灰色预测模型研究

Research of Grey Forecasting Model on the Number of People Infected by Influenza A H1N1 Influenza

就我国甲型H1N1流感传染人数的预测运用灰色系统理论建立了GM(1,1)模型和1阶残差修正模型GMε(1,1),并分别作了精度分析研究了GMε(1,1)的变化趋势,提出了临界值和有效域概念.用MATLAB确定了模型参数及模型预测值.

A As for our prediction of number of people infected by Influenza A H1N1 influenza in China. the GM（1,1） model and a first order residual error correction model are established under the application of grey system theory. At the same time, two models have been under the way of accuracy analysis respectively. This paper studies the change in trend of GMε（1,1） and comes up with the concept of critical value and the effective domain. The model parameters and model forecasts are determined by means of MATLAB.