金融体系顺周期性与金融危机的发展演变关系研究

Research on Relation between Procyclicality and Financial Crisis’s Evolution

金融体系中的顺周期效应是导致金融体系内在不稳定性的重要原因,也是造成金融危机的根源之一。本文对金融体系中的顺周期现象进行了系统性的分析,认为不仅在信贷市场上存在顺周期效应,资本市场同样也存在顺周期效应,且两者之间存在紧密的相互促进作用,通过金融加速器、财富效应等传导至实体经济,放大经济波动周期。本文随后在顺周期的框架下探讨了金融危机的形成及发展、演变机制,并以美国次贷危机为实例加以验证。

Proeyclicality is one of important factors leading to inherent instability of financial system and also a root cause of financial crisis. This paper makes a systemic analysis on procycality of financial system, argues that procycality lies not only in the credit market, hut also in the capital market. Procycality in those two markets interacts and enhances each other, and consequently influences the real economy through financial accelerator and wealth effect, magnifying economic fluctuation. Finally the paper studies emergence, development and evolution of the financial crisis under the framework of procycality theory, taking American subprime crisis as an example.