预测前景 把握未来能源与石油供需格局新变化——记中日“第三届石油市场研究成果交流会”

Predicting future prospects and grasp the future energy and the new changes in oil supply and demand——a report of the third Sino-Japanese oil market research conference

由中国石油集团经济技术研究院与日本能源经济研究所共同主办的石油市场研究成果交流会自2007年以来每年在中日两国轮流举办。2009年12月举办的第三届交流会坚持科学性、前瞻性和权威性,紧紧围绕世界及亚洲石油市场,分析变化,预测需求,判断趋势,提出对策,不仅在两院所之间构建了共同深化研究的良好机制,而且为关注石油与能源问题的中日两国各界人士搭建了一个互动交流的高端平台。

On the 9th of December 2009, the third Oil Market Research Conference was opened in Beijing, co-hosted by the CNPC Research Institute of Economics and Technology and the Institute of Energy Economics, Japan (IEEJ). In attendance were leaders of related departments from the Chinese Government, experts from research organisations, representatives of large oil companies, academics, as well as representatives from Japanese research organisations, senior corporate figures, and other foreign investment energy companies and organisations, totalling over 160 participants. The deputy-chief economist from CNPC Wang Lihua made a presentation to the conference. China and Japan exchanged the results of four academic projects. IEEJ Managing Director , Mr Kokichi ITO and the a chief engineer from the Chinese side Mr Dai Jiaquan made presentations on the the topics of Asia/World Energy Outlook 2009 and Impact of financial crisis on China's oil market and post-crisis development trend, analysing market trends for China, Asia and the World from a long term and a short-to-medium term perspective. Mr Ryoichi Komiyama, a IEEJ researcher, and a deputy-chief engineer from the Chinese side Jiang Xuefeng made presentations on the topics Outlook on Clean Energy Vehicles and the Impact on Fuel Demand in Transport Sector and Impact of Financial Crisis to Oil Companies and New Trends of International Oil Cooperation, predicting new management practices in international oil companies and changes in forms of international cooperation which may occur between now and 2035 due to the production of automobiles with energy conservation technology and the growing dependance of oil supply on OPEC. The Chinese side believes that after the financial crisis, the Chinese economy will enter its next growth phase, which will cause oil demand to rise rather rapidly. Over the next few years, Chinese production capacity of refined oil will constantly increase, the use of firewood will gradually decrease but will stay at a relatively high level. Per capita consumption of oil will rise dramatically, the effect of new and alternative energy on oil demand will gradually become more apparent, and the price setting mechanism for refined oil products will be further reformed. The financial crisis was a major blow for all types of petroleum companies, however, they have taken appropriate and effective measures. In the wake of the crisis, the petroleum industry has entered a new phase of adjustment and reallocation. Oil companies from resource rich countries will take a leading role in international oil and gas exploration and exploitation as a result of the large amount of resources under their control. Resource rich countries will become the formulators of the principles of international cooperation, and will tend to use service contracts. The operating modes of international petroleum companies will tend towards service as the main orientation. IEEJ estimates that over the period 2007-2035, demand for primary energy will grow from 11.1 billion tons to 16.9 billion tons, and the demand for petroleum will increase from 4.1 billion tons to 5.4 billion tons. Emissions of CO2 will increase from 28.8 billion tons to 41.54 billion tons. During the same period, Chinese demand for primary energy will increase from 1.77 billion tons to 3.45 billion tons. Its demand for petroleum will increase from 7.5 million barrels a day to 18.8 billion barrels a day (an increase of about 150%). In the future, the number of cars in operation will increase dramatically. New energy vehicles will develop rapidly, there will be a diverse range of vehicles, such as electric cars, rechargeable hybrid cars and fuel cell powered cars. These new types of vehicle will make an important contribution to reducing emissions in the transport industry. In order for the world, and Asia in particular, to achieve the '3E' target of Economic Development, Environmental Protection and Energy Security, each country should promote diversification in their energy supply, conserve energy and promote the development of new energy, while at the same time increasing research and development and technical cooperation. Since 2007, China and Japan have held an Oil Market Research Conference each year. The conference is highly regarded by related government departments in both countries, as well as energy companies, research organizations, experts and academics.