2009年世界石油市场回顾与2010年展望

A review of the global oil market in 2009 and its prospects for 2010

2009年,国际油价呈现宽幅波动上升态势,波动范围为35～80美元/桶,预计年内均价将超过60美元/桶。2009年世界石油市场的主要特点:1)WTI与布伦特原油价格倒挂日渐频繁;2)轻质原油和重质原油价差缩小;3)石油的金融属性更加明显,投机商继续青睐石油期货市场;4)欧佩克减产履约率呈现前高后低走势,剩余产能大幅增加;6)石油库存水平居高不下。2010年,全球经济将出现曲折缓慢的复苏态势,基础仍然十分脆弱;石油供需尚显宽松;全球库存和剩余产能将维持较高水平;金融因素仍将是影响2010年油价走势的突出因素。预计2010年油价上升是主基调,全年均价为70～80美元/桶。鉴于世界经济发展前景的不确定性依然很大,油价在未来一段时间将以区间波动为主。

Since 2009, the global oil market has displayed a trend towards price volitility, with prices between USD35 and 80 per barrel. It is estimated that the average price over the coming year will exceed USD60 per barrel. In 2009, the global oil market displayed the following characteristics: 1) WTI and Brent crude oil prices frequently did not cover the costs of production, 2) the difference between the prices of light crude and heavy crude lessened, 3) involvement of the finance industry in petroleum has become more apparent, with speculators continuing to favour the petroleum futures market, 4) OPEC has reduced the amount of production agreements they honour, markedly increasing excess capacity, 5) levels of petroleum reserves remained high. In 2010, the global economy will slowly and falteringly move towards recovery, but the economic fundamentals remain weak and oil demand and supply will continue to be slack. Global oil reserves and excess capacity will remain rather high, with financial factors continuing to have a major influence on oil prices. It is generally expected that the price of oil will rise, with the average price of oil over the year falling between 70-80 USD per barrel. In light of the fact that there is a large amount of uncertainty in economic forecasts, the oil price will be rather volatile in the short-term.