贸易媒介、定价格局与国际石油市场演变——对石油史的新阐释

Trade intermediaries, price setting structures and the evolution of the international petroleum market——a new interpretation of petroleum history

通过引入贸易媒介的三分法贸易商品定价分析框架,阐述生产者、贸易媒介和消费者等推动市场结构和定价格局变动的机理,并从生产者—贸易媒介以及贸易媒介—消费者两个环节的定价博弈出发,尝试性地对国际石油市场及定价格局的演变进行分析。阐释了现代石油工业150年历史中重大政治经济事件的经济涵义和各阶段国际石油市场格局演变的主要特征,并分析了在期货市场体系中,产油国、石油公司及投机者等对国际油价变动的影响及其作用机理。

By splitting commercial trade into three components and using the framework of price setting analysis, we attempt to analyze the evolution of the global petroleum market as well as that of the price setting structure. We explain the affect that producers, trade intermediaries and consumers have each had on market structure and changes in the price setting mechanism as well as looking at the price setting interactions between producer and trade intermediaries and between trade intermediaries and the consumer. We cover the major political-economy events effecting the oil industry over the last 150 years, as well as looking at their economic implications. We explain the major characteristics of changes in the oil industry at each stage and analyse the effect that oil producing countries, oil companies and speculators have had on oil prices within the futures market, as well as analysing the mechanisms by which this occurs.