进口结构与技术进步:中国的经验证据

Import Structure and Technological Progress:Empirical Evidence from China

本文针对进口能否产生技术溢出从而促进进口国的技术进步或生产率提高这一问题,首先构造了进口结构指标及技术进步指标,然后对进口结构与技术进步的相互作用进行了协整分析和格兰杰因果关系检验。结果表明:资本品、中间品的进口均对技术进步有长期稳定的促进作用;我国进口存在技术溢出,且中间进口品的技术溢出作用较强,但进口结构与技术进步之间不存在双向因果关系,贸易结构改善与技术进步之间的良性循环并未形成。根据以上结论,本文提出了加强对外贸易、充分利用技术传递,将技术创新与技术传递有机结合,用竞争扶持代替关税保护这三项政策建议。

Aiming at the research problem that whether import can cause technology spillover and then promote technological progress or the increase of productivity, this paper establishes the indexes about import structure and the indexes about technological progress, and makes the co-integration analysis and the Granger causality test for mutual effects between import structure and technological progress. The empirical resuits show that：the import of capital goods and intermediate goods have long-term stable promotion on technological progress;there exists technological spillover in China＇s import,and the technological spillover effect of intermediate import goods is stronger,but there doesn＇t exist mutual causal relationship between import structure and technological progress, and a virtuous circle between the improvement of trade structure and technological progress haven＇t been formed. Based on the above conclusions,it puts forward three relevant policy suggestions that are strengthening foreign trade and making full use of technology transfer, combining technological innovation and technology transfer, and replacing tarriff protection by competition support.