基于Gompertz模型的中国民用汽车保有量预测

Forecasting on China's Civil Automobile-owned Based on Gompertz Model

本文采用我国31个省(市)的面板数据,利用Gompertz模型对我国各省(市)民用汽车保有量和拐点进行了预测。结果表明:Gompertz模型能很好地拟合我国各省市的民用汽车发展趋势;北京、浙江、内蒙古的民用汽车保有量的人均收入弹性已接近最大,其他各省的收入弹性仍然在不断地增长;理想估计下,大部分省市的汽车保有量将在2015—2020年之间达到拐点;2015年全国的民用汽车保有量将会突破1.28亿辆,2020年将达到2.19亿辆。

This paper uses the Gompertz model and the panel data to forecast national and provincial civil automobile-owned. The results show that：Gompertz model fits well the development trend of civil automobile-owned of all provinces; the per capita income elasticity of civil automobile-owned in Beijing,Zhejiang and Neimenggu are close to the largest,while that of other provinces is constantly growing;according to the ideal estimate, most of provinces will get the turning point in the years of 2015-2020;the model predicts that national civil automobile-owned will exceed 128 million in 2015,and will reach 219 million in 2020.