甲型H1N1流感数学建模

Mathematic Modeling of Influenza A H1N1

研究甲型H1N1流感的传播规律,将人群分为易感人群、病毒潜伏人群、发病人群、退出者人群四类.分析了甲型H1N1流感在人群间的转化过程;注意到疫情主要受日接触率影响,不同的时段日接触率的影响因素不同,建立了在未预防控制阶段的自然传播和在预防控制阶段的非自然传播两个数学模型;最后给出了几点说明与思考.

Spread of Influenza A H1N1 is researched. Four categories are obtained, they are： susceptible populations, the latent virus populations, the incidence populations and the removed, First, the conversion process of Influenza A H1 N1 is analyzed; Second, two mathematical models of the natural transmission without prevention and control and the unnatural spread under the prevention and control are established. It is observed that the epidemic is mainly affected by the factors of different daily exposure periods. Finally, some explanation and reflection are also given.