企业并购长期市场绩效与绩效推断假说——来自中国股票市场的经验证据

The Long-term Performance after M&A and Performance Extrapolation Hypothesis:Empirical Evidence from China Stock Market

对企业并购长期市场绩效与影响因素的研究是目前理论界关注的焦点。以中国上市公司1998-2004年发生并购的公司为样本,研究并购公司在并购后三年的市场绩效,结果表明：并购后三年内并购公司的市场绩效都小于对照组的市场绩效;虽然管理者有高估自己能力的可能,但是对绩效推断假说的检验表明,无法用管理者是否过度自信解释价值型公司和成长型公司在并购后长期市场绩效的差异。

Nowadays long-term market performance after M＆A is the focus of empirical research. Samples of M＆A from 1998 - 2004 in China stock market are selected to evaluate the performance within the 3 years after the event. Empirical evidence shows that M＆A have a negative impact on listed companies in the long run. No evidence has been found to support performance extrapolation hypothesis, while there exists possibilities that managers might over-evaluate their performance.