开征物业税对房地产市场的影响——基于省际面板数据的分析

Impact of Levying Property Tax on Property Market——An Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

从理论方面分析开征物业税对房地产市场的影响可以看出,物业税对房地产市场的短期影响是降低房价,而长期影响则不显著;实证方面,以1999～2008年我国30个省份的面板数据为样本,对商品房价格与拟开征物业税之间的相关关系做进一步研究的结果表明,房地产市场价格与物业税之间存在负相关关系,且开征物业税对不同地区房地产价格的影响存在差异。因此,与现行房地产税相比,物业税的开征会对房价起到更明显的抑制作用,可以缓解房地产市场过热,抑制房地产市场泡沫,有利于实现房地产市场的良性运作。

From the theoretical analysis of the impact of levying property tax on property market, its short-term impact is to reduce the price of houses, while its long-term impact is not significant. Based on 30 Chinese provincial panel data from 1999 to 2008, a research has been conducted into the relationship between commercial house prices and property tax. It shows that there is a negative correlation between them and levying property tax will have influence real estate prices in different areas. Thus, compared with current real estate tax, levying property tax will limit the prices of houses and ease the overheated real estate market. It also can curb the real estate market bubble so as to achieve healthy functioning of the real estate market.