全球水稻生产现状与制约因素分析

Analysis of Status and Constraints of Rice Production in the World

【目的】分析全球水稻生产现状及其制约水稻生产的主要因子,探讨提高水稻产量的主要途径。【方法】采用全球水稻生产资料定量分析水稻面积和单产变化及其对总产贡献,及制约水稻生产的主要因素。【结果】全球水稻生产自1961年至2006年,由于复种指数提高,面积增长32%,年均增长0.61%。单产提高1.21倍,年均增长1.82%,单产提高主要依靠矮杆品种和杂交稻及其配套栽培技术的推广,灌溉设施改善和化肥施用。总产增长1.92倍,年均增长2.46%。水稻总产增长中,由面积增长贡献27%,由单产提高贡献73%。20世纪60年代以来全球水稻面积年增长率呈现逐年下降趋势。近年来水稻单产的增长率逐年变小,20世纪80、90年代和2000年以来分别为2.58%、0.98%和1.16%。面积下降和单产增长率变小导致总产增长率下降,20世纪80、90年代和2000年以来总产年均增产率分别为2.73%、1.48%和0.88%。制约水稻生产的主要因子是,水稻生产技术对单产提高的贡献率下降,病虫草危害及自然灾害频繁,多熟制生产系统水稻单产下降,水稻生产效益低。【结论】提高水稻产量的主要技术对策是改良水稻品种和扩大杂交稻应用,在非洲推进非洲新水稻应用,推广水稻集成栽培技术弥合水稻产量差异,发展水稻机械化生产技术及政府加大对水稻生产的政策支持。

[ Objective ] An approach to increase rice yield and production was discussed through analysis of the status of rice production and the main constraints limiting rice production in the wodd. [Method] Changes of rice planting area and yield and its contribution to production, and the main factors limiting rice production were analyzed. [Result] In the period from 1961 to 2006, rice planting area increased by 32% mainly due to the increase of the double cropping system, yield increased by 1.21 times mainly due to the application of semi-dwarf variety and hybrid, and its accompanying cultivation technology, improvement of irrigation system and chemical fertilizer application that resulted in the increase of rice production by 1.92 times. Planting area increase contributed to 27% and yield increase to 73% of the increase of rice production. Since 1960s of the 20th century, the annual growth rate of rice planting area decreased significantly. The annual growth rate of yield is becoming small. It is 2.58%, 0.98% and 1.16% respectively in 1980s, 1990s and after 2000. The decrease of annual growth rate of rice area and yield resulted in the decrease of annual growth rate of rice production. The annual growth rate of rice production is 2.73%, 1.48% and 0.88%, respectively, in 1980s, 1990s and after 2000. The factors limiting rice production mainly are low contribution of rice production technology to yield increase, more frequency of pest damage and natural disaster, yield declining in multiple-cropping system and low production profit. [Conclusion] To increase the global rice yield, there is a geat need for breeding of high-yielding variety and hybrid, practice of new Africa rice varieties in Africa, development of integrated rice management technology to reduce the yield gap and mechanized rice production technology, and enhancement of policy support for rice production.