摘要
地震预报效能评价是个重要而复杂的科学问题,本文从三个方面来研究:用均值预报保证率法和最大振幅法来判定有震综合预报的成败;在几项可接受的基本假设条件下,经严格的数学推导得到若干重要定理,在此基础上进行地震预报有效性的统计检验,借以判断地震预报方法或手段是否与地震流显著相关(即与盲目预报是否有显著性差异);结合地震预报现状,推荐效率值Z系列和相关评分(广义Wallen评分)V系列作为定量表示地震预报有效程度的两种统计评分方法。
The evaluation of earthquake prediction efficacy is an important and complex scientific problem. In this paper, we tried to research in three aspects, that is; to determine the success or failure of earthquake comprehensive prediction by the method of both insurance rate of average value prediction and maximal amplitude; to decide if the ways and methods of prediction are interrelated remarkably with the earthquake current (i.e. whether it is obviously different from blind prediction) by the statistical test of the effectiveness of prediction, which based on some important theorems obtained from strict mathematical calculation; to recommende the efficient value of Z series and correlative evaluation (generalized Wallen evaluation) of V series as two kinds of the statistical methods that show quantitatively the efficient level of earthquake prediction.
出处
《内陆地震》
1990年第1期1-12,共12页
Inland Earthquake
关键词
地震预报
效能
评价
地震
Efficacy evaluation on earthquake prediction, Insurance rate of average value, The maximal amplitude, Correlative evaluation series.
