工程场址地震危险性分析的概率计算

PROBABILITY CALCULATION OF SEISMIC RISK ANALYSIS FOR THE ENGINEERING SITE

将南天山地震带西段(喀什—柯坪)和西昆仑地震带作为统计单元,确定了各单元及所属潜在震源区的地震活动性参数。利用新疆地区的地震烈度衰减公式和美国西部地区的烈度、加速度衰减公式,推算了新疆地区的加速度衰减公式。根据时空非均匀地震危险性的概率计算方法,计算了阿尔塔什、公格尔、下坂地三项工程场址的地震烈度和地动加速度超越概率。

In this paper, the west part of the south Tianshan seismic zone and the west Kunlun seismic zone are considered as the statistic units respectively,so that parameters on seismic activity in these two units and those in potential earthquake areas being subject to them have been determined . The acceleration attenuation formula in Xinjiang region have been derived in terms of attenuation formula of seismic intensity in Xinjiang and attenuation formulas of both intensity and acceleration in the western part of the United States . Finally , the exceedance probabilities of both seismic intensity and ground motion acceleration for Aratax, Kongur and Xiabandi these three engineering sites have been calculated by. an estimated method of heterogeneous time and space for seismic risk probability.