中国木材价格波动的动态均衡模型及实证分析

Wood's Price Change Equilibrium Model and Demonstration Analysis in China

对传统蛛网模型作了改进,把第t期商品的供给函数考虑为t-1,t-2,…,1期价格和随机扰动的函数,考虑到价格调节政策、投资投机、调控政策、物价涨跌等因素对木材需求的影响,在需求函数中加入修正系数,以此建立以木材价格调节为中心的木材供需动态模型,并对模型进行了稳定性分析和供给变动对价格变动的影响分析,得到了均衡价格及其存在的稳定性条件和供给变动对价格变动的影响乘数。在上述理论模型的基础上,利用1993-2006年中国流通市场中的木材供需数据进行实证分析,对中国木材价格波动进行定量分析,并为判断木材价格的稳定性,解决木材供需矛盾提供了理论依据和现实操作方法。

The paper adjusts the classical cobweb,includes changing the supply function＇s independent variables which were taken from the preceding term＇s price to the price of t,t-1,…,1 and stochastic variable.And in demand function,the paper adds variables about the factors of the price policy,investment,control policy,price change and etc.Then it creates the wood＇s supply-demand model including supply function and demand function,which linked up through wood price.After that it analyzes the stability of the model and affection of price change by reason of supply change to obtain equilibrium price and impact multiplier of price change by reason of supply change.It creates the demonstration model being used to the wood＇s demand and supply from 1993 to 2006 in China to analyze the stability of the undulation of Chinese wood price,and raises the theoretical foundation and maneuverable method to resolve the inconsistency between wood＇s demand and supply.