监测位移趋势分析确定滑坡稳定状态研究

Study on the Quantitative Identification of the Landslide through Analyzing on the Monitor Displacement Trend

针对滑坡预报缺少公认的临界速率，同时由于普遍存在的位移突变现象，易于造成大量误报的问题，提出了基于监测位移趋势分析的滑坡预报新思路。通过分析某工程滑坡的位移监测数据，得出了选取关键断面、观测预报点的一般规律。采用FLAC如计算考虑流变状况下，不同安全系数所对应的滑坡位移趋势曲线，通过对比分析相应关键点监测位移趋势曲线，定量、全过程判定滑坡所处的稳定状态，为工程项目提供决策参考，避免了滑坡进一步发展，验证了滑坡观测预报点选择规律和对比监测、计算位移趋势曲线进行滑坡预报的可行性。

Aiming at solving the issues such as forming generally acknowledged critical speed during the landslide predication and the ubiquity sudden change phenomenon which is likely to cause false prediction, a new landslide prediction idea is proposed based on control of the trend of landslide displacement monitoring and numerical analysis. By analyzing the displacement monitoring data of the landslide, the general law to select observation prediction point of the landslide is obtained. By the software FLAC^3D ,the deformation trends slide displacement curve corresponding to different safety factor under the rheological status is calculated. Through contrast and analysis with the monitor the curve of deformation trend of the corresponding key-points, quantitative identification of the landslide stability in entire process and providing reference for the project, the further development of the landslide is avoided, the general laws to select observation prediction point of the landslide and the feasibility of landslide prediction through contrast with the monitoring and calculation of displacement trend curve are verified.