政府支出对居民消费的影响——对李嘉图等价之谜的中国经验分析

The Impact of Government Spending on the Consumption——An Empirical Analysis on the Barro-Ricardo Equivalence

基于消费跨期最优化框架,政府支出对居民消费的影响主要取决于消费者相对风险规避系数及私人消费支出与政府支出之间的相关系数。对中国数据的分析表明:短期内,李嘉图等价不成立,政府支出与居民消费呈互补关系,即政府支出增加将导致居民消费增加,积极的财政政策在短期内是有效的;长期内,政府支出将完全挤占居民消费支出,因而支出政策不宜用于实现政府的长期经济目标。

This paper analyzed the relationship between government spending and consumption under the intertemporal optimization framework. It showed that the impact of government spending on the consumption depended on the CRRA and the correlation coefficient between the private and the government spending. We also examined the effect of Chinese government spending on the consumption empirically, and found that Chinese government expenditure was complement with private consumption in the short term, and the active fiscal policy in China seems to be effective. In the long run, the private consumption will be crowded out by government expenditure, so the expenditure policy was not suitable to achieve the long-term goals.