“生态省”目标导向下城乡系统生态承载力评估——以海南省为例

Appraisal of ecological carrying capacity of regional urban-rural system aiming at Ecological Province——A case study of Hainan Province

发展是承载力体系演变的脉络。将生态承载力问题与区域城乡发展研究相结合,可为统筹城乡发展、生态环境保护与建设等战略决策提供直接参考依据。本文基于城乡系统生态承载力的内涵及作用机理分析,构建城乡系统生态承载力评价指标体系,并依据1996～2007年海南省的国民统计数据和典型调研资料,应用因子分析方法,进行海南省城乡系统生态承载力实证评价。结果表明:1996年、1997～1999年和2000～2007年3个时期海南省城乡系统生态承载力差异显著,1996年最高,1998年最低。这是区域发展政策、人口增长以及社会经济水平综合驱动作用的结果。其中,政策因素是主导驱动力,其与生态承载力演变规律具有高度一致性。强化特区理念、深化"生态省"建设力度,倡导生态农业、生态工业和生态旅游模式,是未来海南省社会经济持续发展的基本途径。

As the development is the mainline of ecological carrying capacity connotation evolution,it is vital to incorporate regional development into ecological carrying capacity research.This can enhance legislation of regional development policies for coordinated regional urban-rural development,environment protection and construction.In this paper,an evaluation index system was developed base on element characteristics and driver-mechanism of the regional urban-rural system to assess its ecological carrying capacity.The factor analysis method was applied,and Hainan Province,the first defined Ecological Province by the State Environment Protection Administration of China,for the period of 1996～2007 was as a case study.The results indicate an obvious fluctuation of the ecological carrying capacity of the regional urban-rural system in Hainan Province for 1996～2007.Ecological carrying capacity is relatively high for 1996,hitting the lowest level in 1998,and then generally steadily increases since the 21 st century.Policy factors,especially Ecological Province strategy implementation,are important drivers of ecological carrying capacity in the region.Urban-rural system ecological carrying capacity of the province is remarkably promoted by socio-economic development,especially the economic growth and technology application.The province should seize advantage of the special economic zone policies.Moreover,eco-agriculture,eco-tourism and eco-industrial models should be emphasized in the region.Only in these ways would there be rapid economic and societal development as well as higher regional ecological carrying capacity in Hainan Province.