本次全球金融危机对我国对外贸易影响的定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of the Impacts of Financial Crisis on China's Foreign Trade

金融危机短期内对国际贸易最直接的两个主要影响渠道为收入效应和价格效应。本文将本次全球金融危机的演变对我国经济的影响划分为危机前、爆发、加剧和复苏四个阶段,采用进出口方程弹性分析法定量分解了国内外收入和人民币实际有效汇率变动两大因素对我国进出口贸易的影响。研究结果显示,危机期间世界经济衰退对我国进出口贸易产生了极大的不利影响,同期人民币实际有效汇率的大幅升值进一步加剧了我国进出口贸易的下降。金融危机冲击使我们充分地意识到我国过度依赖外部需求的经济增长的不可持续性及经济增长模式转换的紧迫性。保持人民币汇率的适度弹性,在危机阶段保持人民币适度贬值有利于短期出口和经济增长的稳定。

The two direct impacts of the Financial Crisis on international trade are income effect and price effect. In this paper we phase the evolution of the financial crisis into four stages of pre-crisis, bursting, aggregating and recovering, and quantitatively decompose the effects of foreign and domestic income and RMB REER on China＇s import and export trade. The conclusion shows that the world economic recession during the crisis has had a significantly negative impact on China＇s import and export trade, and the appreciation of RMB REER also has played a role in adding fuel to the flames. From the Financial Crisis we are fully aware that excessive dependence on external demand may lead to the unsustainability of economic growth, and it＇s necessary and imperative to transform our current export-leading mode of economic growth. To maintain the appropriate flexibility of the RMB exchange rate and a moderate depreciation of the real effective exchange rate is helpful for the stability of exports and economic growth in the short term.