珠江三角洲脆弱性研究进展

Research Progress on the Vulnerability of the Pearl River Delta

珠江三角洲是我国第二大河三角洲。随着全球变暖、海平面上升和人类活动的加强,珠江三角洲自然的固有脆弱性和人为的特殊脆弱性显著增强。自然的固有脆弱性包括基底沉降、新构造运动、地震、软土层、海平面变化、海水入侵、风暴潮与洪水等;人为的特殊脆弱性包括污染、过度采砂和抽水、人工填土及人工建筑等。通过对目前珠江三角洲各项脆弱性分散研究文献和资料的收集汇总,把珠江三角洲作为一个整体系统进行归纳分析研究。结果表明这些脆弱性的研究还存在初级定性描述、相互矛盾、缺乏整体性和系统性,监测-预警-应急机制不够完善。认为珠江三角洲脆弱性研究还应加强定量分析,采用新的方法和手段,重视各脆弱性之间的耦合作用及珠江三角洲脆弱性变化对人类社会经济发展的影响,重点研究珠江三角洲对脆弱性变化的自适应性。

The Pearl River Delta is the second largest river delta in China. As global warming is enhanced, the sea level rise accelerates and human activity intensifies, the natural inherent vulnerability and artificial special vulnerability of the delta significantly increase. The natural vulnerability includes basement subsidence, new tectonics movement, earthquake, soft soil compaction, seawater intrusion, fluctuation of sea level, storm surge, and flood etc. And the artificial vulnerability includes pollution, excessive extraction of sand and pumping groundwater, artificial fill and buildings etc. As an integrated system, the PRA vulnerability is systematically analyzed and studied based on present dispersive research. The result shows that there exist some problems such as primary qualitative description, mutual conflict, lacking of integrity and mechanism of monitoring-warningemergency is still not perfect. The vulnerability of the PRA should be studied quantitatively by using new methods. And the effect of the vulnerability change on human social and economic development should be taken into account. More attention should be paid to the self-adaptability of the whole PRA to the vulnerability change in future.